Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Friday, November 16, 2007
and just like that
let me formally announce that i will be the main blog featured at www.fantasyhockey.hockeyanalysis.com from here on out. go there now, that's where you'll continue to see my blog.
it's been fun thus far and i'll be doing the same sort of stuff over at hockeyanalysis that i've been doing over here.
seriously, go over there now.
www.fantasyhockey.hockeyanalysis.com
it's been fun thus far and i'll be doing the same sort of stuff over at hockeyanalysis that i've been doing over here.
seriously, go over there now.
www.fantasyhockey.hockeyanalysis.com
Thursday, November 15, 2007
BIG NEWS ON THE HORIZON
i'm not talking about NHL news, i'm talking about shallowfrozenwater news. discussions are underway to move the blog to another website. nothing official yet so no official pronouncement but i'm more than a little hopeful.
details to follow.
details to follow.
Stat Thursday - faceoff %
really, some leagues do actually have this as a category. now it's a waste of stats imo but there is still some value to be seen here. for NHL teams that employ a puck control offense then faceoff % can be a valuable indicator of fantasy value. besides it's the only reason that Yanic Perreault still has an NHL job. did you realize that Perreault has led the world in faceoff % in the NHL for what 3 years running? i didn't actually look that up but given certain assumptions i believe i'm right on that one.
anywho. faceoff guys are on the ice in every situation, late in games and often with whatever offensive studs are around on their NHL squad. they get assists, their +/- is usually good and if they have a nose for the net then there's always the garbage rebound to look out for.
i'm hoping there's some fantasy value for you to see here reader. i go with some basic assumptions: i won't look at a guy who doesn't take at least 15% of his total team's faceoffs, otherwise he's not even considered among the top 5 C's on his own team; i won't look at a guy at this stage of the season who doesn't have at least 100 faceoffs to his credit, unless he was injured then i'll make some allowances; and finally i get the final say as to who i look at, you got a problem with that then feel free to suggest a fantasy option that i didn't look at and then defend it.
the first stat listed is faceoff% and the second stat is percentage of team faceoffs taken.
Yanic Perreault CHI (69.2)(17.6) - once again the world leader, the best faceoff man on the planet. he surprised the fantasy world with 19 goals in 49 games for Phoenix last year, was traded to the Leafs at the deadline and was good for 2 goals in 17 games for them last year. what does that say about Yanic? it says that he needs opportunity on the top lines in order to produce. as a Yote he got a chance to plug a few goals but as a Leaf he didn't get that chance, he was there to play a defensive forward role, and take some faceoffs in his own zone late in games. i think that he has value on a young team like the Hawks if they give him a shot at some ice time with their best forwards, that isn't happening. once again he's in a defensive role and his 4 pts in 16 games so far is showing why. now if you count F% as a category and you need a C4, then absolutely add him. otherwise, uh, not so much.
Randy Robitaille OTW (66.2)(13.1) - i note my first exception but the reason is that he's only played 9 games this season and yet has built up his % of total faceoffs to 13.1 already. Robitaille is a viable fantasy option for deeper leagues and has seen a spike in value of late because Jason Spezza has been injured for the last 4 games or so. Robitaille's 5 pts in 9 games will not continue at the same pace once Spezza is back, and he is. still, he's viable as a C4 where F% is considered.
Joe Thornton SJ (62.0)(32.4) - big Joe is a fantasy STUD. too often he gets forgotten because few east of his time zone stay up late to watch him work his magic. not only does he contribute to his team offensively more than any other guy on his entire coastline but also he takes one in three faceoffs and wins 2/3rds of those. if you're playing in a league with F% as a category then Joe should be drafted 1st overall. yes, i said it.
Manny Malhotra CBJ (61.1)(26.9) - i find it interesting that on a team with Mike Peca and Sergei Fedorov as main shutdown defensive forward options it is this guy who is the best dot man. to top it all off he's got 9 pts on the season, doesnt give the puck up and is pretty adept at takeaways. he's an interesting option but doesn't produce enough in other categories to be considered anything more than a C5.
Kyle Wellwood TOR (60.9)(10.3) - ok, another exception but i do so because i like this guy and people don't realize the value he can provide to a fantasy team. he could rank up there as a C3 and if he cashes in on the significant PP time that he's in line for then he could end up as a highly ranked C3. he's only played 4 games so far but if he's sitting on your waiver wire he's well worth a flyer, ok he's easily worth Derian Hatcher, he's a Flyer.
Michael Zigomanis PHX (60.3)(21.0) - not worth rostering in a fantasy league, especially if he only shoots once every couple weeks. but he can draw the puck though. he dominated Boston in the dot on Oct 6. still, move on.
Kris Draper DET (60.2)(27.7) - this is one of my fave defensive forwards in the game, and he was once traded for a buck; literally, it cost the Wings one dollar to get him from the Jets. it's curtains for Drapes as a high end offense option (did you like my turn of phrase there? aw, nuts it's wasted on you guys) but as a checking center he's still among the best around. he went through a very hot streak right at the beginning of the season and guys were actually talking about picking him up but in 99% of leagues that would be a wasted transaction. now if you count F% though, he's not a waste on your roster.
Bobby Holik ATL (58.3)(30.5) - i can just hear the boo-ing from my chair right now as every hockey fan in the New York area screams about how much of a waste of money this man is, well ok i think Islander fans are fine with other NY area teams wasting money. the fact is though, Holik does a lot for a hockey team, particularly one without a superstar C in the lineup. he gets his nose dirty and carries a large load of defensive responsibility for the Thrash so that snipers like Kovalchuk and Hossa can work their magic. he may not be well liked but he still has value as a C4 in a good season.
Chris Gratton TB (57.7)(19.2) - the buzz around Gratton when he first came on the NHL scene was that he could be Mark Messier one day. it turns out that he ... wasn't. he was to be a power forward who could beat you at the dot, beat you to the net and then beat you over the head as he raises his hands with the biscuit in the basket. now it turns out that he's just pretty good at the stuff in the dot. that still has value though since it's not like Tampa is devoid of talent so he just needs to win the draw, pass it to Marty, over to one of the Vinny's and instant second assist. still, it's probably just a pipe dream for Gratis at this stage.
Patrick Marleau SJ (57.7)(16.0) - is it any wonder that the Sharks don't like to employ much of a dump and chase offense if they can just employ more of a puck control offense. they have two of the best faceoff men in the league taking about half their draws total, of course they're going to have the puck a lot. i think it would be a mistake for the Sharks to trade Marleau anywhere, especially to the Habs (ptui) but maybe that's just me. Marleau has slumped huge this season but don't believe that will continue. in fact now could be a great time to offer up someone like Saku Koivu or Mike Comrie for him (dare i say).
that's the top 10 and i had to sort through 80 names to find them. the next 10 guys who qualify are pretty telling too.
Michael Peca (another Jacket, interesting), Antoine Vermette (about time a Senator hit the list), Chris Drury (well paid for a reason), Jarret Stoll (overlooked and underused fantasy resource), Jason Spezza (i have him in a keeper league, YAH for me), Rod Brind'amour (this guy does stuff like this EVERY year), Daymond Langkow (last season was not a blip, there's more to come), Sidney Crosby (i hear he's pretty good), Boyd Gordon (who?), Henrik Zetterberg (also pretty good but really who's that Gordon guy?), Mats Sundin, Scott Gomez, and then we start back into names that you don't want to hear about. if you thought i was trying to say that Boyd Gordon is worth looking into ... i wasn't. i consider myself to be fairly well versed in the NHL and there's no way that i'd even do a search to find out who Gordon is right now.
anywho. faceoff guys are on the ice in every situation, late in games and often with whatever offensive studs are around on their NHL squad. they get assists, their +/- is usually good and if they have a nose for the net then there's always the garbage rebound to look out for.
i'm hoping there's some fantasy value for you to see here reader. i go with some basic assumptions: i won't look at a guy who doesn't take at least 15% of his total team's faceoffs, otherwise he's not even considered among the top 5 C's on his own team; i won't look at a guy at this stage of the season who doesn't have at least 100 faceoffs to his credit, unless he was injured then i'll make some allowances; and finally i get the final say as to who i look at, you got a problem with that then feel free to suggest a fantasy option that i didn't look at and then defend it.
the first stat listed is faceoff% and the second stat is percentage of team faceoffs taken.
Yanic Perreault CHI (69.2)(17.6) - once again the world leader, the best faceoff man on the planet. he surprised the fantasy world with 19 goals in 49 games for Phoenix last year, was traded to the Leafs at the deadline and was good for 2 goals in 17 games for them last year. what does that say about Yanic? it says that he needs opportunity on the top lines in order to produce. as a Yote he got a chance to plug a few goals but as a Leaf he didn't get that chance, he was there to play a defensive forward role, and take some faceoffs in his own zone late in games. i think that he has value on a young team like the Hawks if they give him a shot at some ice time with their best forwards, that isn't happening. once again he's in a defensive role and his 4 pts in 16 games so far is showing why. now if you count F% as a category and you need a C4, then absolutely add him. otherwise, uh, not so much.
Randy Robitaille OTW (66.2)(13.1) - i note my first exception but the reason is that he's only played 9 games this season and yet has built up his % of total faceoffs to 13.1 already. Robitaille is a viable fantasy option for deeper leagues and has seen a spike in value of late because Jason Spezza has been injured for the last 4 games or so. Robitaille's 5 pts in 9 games will not continue at the same pace once Spezza is back, and he is. still, he's viable as a C4 where F% is considered.
Joe Thornton SJ (62.0)(32.4) - big Joe is a fantasy STUD. too often he gets forgotten because few east of his time zone stay up late to watch him work his magic. not only does he contribute to his team offensively more than any other guy on his entire coastline but also he takes one in three faceoffs and wins 2/3rds of those. if you're playing in a league with F% as a category then Joe should be drafted 1st overall. yes, i said it.
Manny Malhotra CBJ (61.1)(26.9) - i find it interesting that on a team with Mike Peca and Sergei Fedorov as main shutdown defensive forward options it is this guy who is the best dot man. to top it all off he's got 9 pts on the season, doesnt give the puck up and is pretty adept at takeaways. he's an interesting option but doesn't produce enough in other categories to be considered anything more than a C5.
Kyle Wellwood TOR (60.9)(10.3) - ok, another exception but i do so because i like this guy and people don't realize the value he can provide to a fantasy team. he could rank up there as a C3 and if he cashes in on the significant PP time that he's in line for then he could end up as a highly ranked C3. he's only played 4 games so far but if he's sitting on your waiver wire he's well worth a flyer, ok he's easily worth Derian Hatcher, he's a Flyer.
Michael Zigomanis PHX (60.3)(21.0) - not worth rostering in a fantasy league, especially if he only shoots once every couple weeks. but he can draw the puck though. he dominated Boston in the dot on Oct 6. still, move on.
Kris Draper DET (60.2)(27.7) - this is one of my fave defensive forwards in the game, and he was once traded for a buck; literally, it cost the Wings one dollar to get him from the Jets. it's curtains for Drapes as a high end offense option (did you like my turn of phrase there? aw, nuts it's wasted on you guys) but as a checking center he's still among the best around. he went through a very hot streak right at the beginning of the season and guys were actually talking about picking him up but in 99% of leagues that would be a wasted transaction. now if you count F% though, he's not a waste on your roster.
Bobby Holik ATL (58.3)(30.5) - i can just hear the boo-ing from my chair right now as every hockey fan in the New York area screams about how much of a waste of money this man is, well ok i think Islander fans are fine with other NY area teams wasting money. the fact is though, Holik does a lot for a hockey team, particularly one without a superstar C in the lineup. he gets his nose dirty and carries a large load of defensive responsibility for the Thrash so that snipers like Kovalchuk and Hossa can work their magic. he may not be well liked but he still has value as a C4 in a good season.
Chris Gratton TB (57.7)(19.2) - the buzz around Gratton when he first came on the NHL scene was that he could be Mark Messier one day. it turns out that he ... wasn't. he was to be a power forward who could beat you at the dot, beat you to the net and then beat you over the head as he raises his hands with the biscuit in the basket. now it turns out that he's just pretty good at the stuff in the dot. that still has value though since it's not like Tampa is devoid of talent so he just needs to win the draw, pass it to Marty, over to one of the Vinny's and instant second assist. still, it's probably just a pipe dream for Gratis at this stage.
Patrick Marleau SJ (57.7)(16.0) - is it any wonder that the Sharks don't like to employ much of a dump and chase offense if they can just employ more of a puck control offense. they have two of the best faceoff men in the league taking about half their draws total, of course they're going to have the puck a lot. i think it would be a mistake for the Sharks to trade Marleau anywhere, especially to the Habs (ptui) but maybe that's just me. Marleau has slumped huge this season but don't believe that will continue. in fact now could be a great time to offer up someone like Saku Koivu or Mike Comrie for him (dare i say).
that's the top 10 and i had to sort through 80 names to find them. the next 10 guys who qualify are pretty telling too.
Michael Peca (another Jacket, interesting), Antoine Vermette (about time a Senator hit the list), Chris Drury (well paid for a reason), Jarret Stoll (overlooked and underused fantasy resource), Jason Spezza (i have him in a keeper league, YAH for me), Rod Brind'amour (this guy does stuff like this EVERY year), Daymond Langkow (last season was not a blip, there's more to come), Sidney Crosby (i hear he's pretty good), Boyd Gordon (who?), Henrik Zetterberg (also pretty good but really who's that Gordon guy?), Mats Sundin, Scott Gomez, and then we start back into names that you don't want to hear about. if you thought i was trying to say that Boyd Gordon is worth looking into ... i wasn't. i consider myself to be fairly well versed in the NHL and there's no way that i'd even do a search to find out who Gordon is right now.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
TJ's Tigers
hi once again folks. this week's team review is the fantasy team of a long time reader. i reviewed his team last year while writing for talentedmrroto.com; his name is Tim but he goes by TJ. if i remember correctly TJ is a Windsor Ontario boy but i could be wrong about that and if i am then i hope he forgives me on it. the important part of the transaction here is the team review so if he's more anonymous than he needs to be then that only helps him as he tries to finagle his way to a championship.
TJ plays in a points league. i hate points leagues. sorry TJ, it's not about you. i just find them to be arbitrary and hard to evaluate unless i want to design a logarhythm that reflects the entire NHL based on the arbitrary numbers that this league sets, and i definitely don't have time for that. however, TJ gives me the impression that he's run some of his own numbers in the past so it doesn't seem all that necessary to run my own. i expect that i'll talk about trends and opportunity more than i will look at hard stats and i'll let TJ use his own hockey sense to craft his way to a winning formula.
ok, the point structure. he plays in a 16 team H2H at CBSSportsline and on a related note, i really like the engine at Sportsline although i find their FA search options cumbersome. TJ's league requires you to pay by the transaction which really makes you stop and question each move before you make it. it's an interesting way for them to generate income but at the same time, guys are naturally going to limit their moves over the course of the season and consequently end up paying less attention to their team. maybe that's just me though. where was i? oh yeah, the points. they play 8F's, 4D's, and a tandem goalie (where whoever is in net for that team on that day earns stats for your fantasy team) with a 6 man bench and no IR option. starting players earn you points like this:
FWD G=1, A=1, PPG=1, SHG=3, GWG=1, SHOG=0.5, HT=5, PSG=10, PIM (min=1, maj=2, misc=3)
DEF G=2, SHG=6, HT=10, PSG=20, remainder same.
GOAL W=2, SO=4, GA=(-0.5), OTW=1, SHOW=0.5, SV=0.1, A=3, PIM same as others.
see why i don't like evaluating points leagues? some quick thoughts that hit me when i saw the structure are that PIMs in particular are harder to evaluate since each different type of PIM is worth a different amount; defensive goals raise the value of D a good chunk, and special teams play is incredibly valuable. what the point in having so many points for a penalty shot goal i'll never be able to determine.
at present TJ is 3rd in his four team division with a 3-3 record. he can set his lineup weekly. let's take a look.
C Rod Brind'amour (B+) CAR - i've read some reports that guys think the game is about to pass him by and the fantasy player should trade him while he still has value. Rod is fine and i'd still expect 80 pts out of him this season.
C Brian Rolston (B+) MIN - the forgotten option in the Wild attack. responsible 2 way play and he's on the ice in every crucial situation.
W Andrew Brunette (B) COL - he's just been moved up to the top line so expect his stats to increase relatedly.
W Marian Hossa (A) ATL - the man is a monster. hold tight and wait for him, it's been pretty tumultuous around this team so far this year.
W Trent Hunter (C) NYI - gotta say, not a fan and wouldn't be starting him.
W Brendan Morrow (B+) DAL - he'll score and should get PIMs which is a bonus. i think he's your best trading chip, by far.
W Chris Neil (B) OTW - i freely admit that i love this guy in all formats, especially ones that reward PIMy play.
W Ryan Smyth (A-) COL - all he does is score. well worth rostering all season and it would take a glorious offer for you to move him out.
D Francois Beauchemin (C) ANA - off the top of the season he led the world in ice time but i said at the time that it wouldn't continue. now that Schneider is back and with Niedermayer talking about returning again then Beau drops a good deal down the depth chart. i'd be shopping him pretty strongly.
D Zdeno Chara (B+) BOS - he'll get bonus PIMs for you and he'll pocket his share of goals. i like him in this format.
D Cory Murphy (B) FLA - special teams stats galore, particularly PPP. he hurt his shoulder last night so you might want to keep an open eye on news for him in the very near future.
D Marek Zidlicky (B-) NAS - phenomenal year for a couple seasons then an off year last year. i think he takes a back seat to Shea Weber for all of his career if he stays in Nashville but that doesn't mean he doesn't have value.
G Philadelphia Flyers (A-) PHI - Martin Biron is arguably a fantasy MVP candidate so far this season and we still haven't heard from a quality goaltender like Antero Niitymaki yet this season.
BN Paul Gaustad (C) BUF - there's upside here and the Sabres need C's who'll contribute. Gaust looks to be in a prime spot to help out if only for the short term.
BN Mark Parrish (C+) MIN - definitely a secondary scoring type of player. if given ice time he'll contribute some but not the sort that you want to start regularly in your league.
BN Ville Peltonen (D) FLA - your weakest forward imo. i doubt i'd have occasion to ever start him if i ever had occasion to roster him.
BN Mikael Samuelsson (B-) DET - i wouldn't be surprised to see him break 50 pts on the season this year and given the opportunities in Hockeytown then i'd even go so far as to say that i EXPECT him to break 50 pts this season.
BN Dustin Byfuglien (D+) CHI - well, he's young and he's contributed plenty with his AHL team. i've seen him play when he visited my local AHL team. he has some opportunity and the path seems more clear for him to keep getting opportunity. he's not much of a viable start at the moment but he might be one day, maybe tomorrow ... ok maybe next month.
BN Petteri Nummelin (D+) MIN- fringe D who's getting PPTOI right now because the offensive options in Minny all have sore groins from too much scoring (or something to that effect). when the better scoring options return then Nummelin's opportunity will disappear.
ok, well i'm not nuts for an awful lot here. the Flyers as your tandem goalie will continue to be a very fine option for you. i like Cory Murphy on your D and see the fact that he's so involved in special teams play as a bonus for your squad. PIMy options are hard to figure but it looks like a guy who'll get his nose right into the middle of things gets some success in this system. if that trend continues then Neil and Chara have some extra value, particularly Neil. i'm going to suggest you shop around for better goal scoring options although i'd be careful offering up Neil to anyone, shop Morrow instead. most of your starting forwards are very much underrated or haven't really shown what they can do yet. they will though. they will. i don't really like your bench at all.
you need to beef up your offensive D and you need at least one more goal scoring forward. you have at your disposal some guys who've had hot starts that can be shopped and you have some power forward options that you can trade.
Waiver Wire Options
Jozef Stumpel FLA - Olli Jokinen is a star in Miami and nobody knows him there. the best option he has on his line is Jozef Stumpel if one assumes that Nathan Horton heads up another scoring line. Stumpy (i wonder if he hates that nickname) can help a fantasy team.
Jiri Hudler DET - Hudler is one of the hottest PP options available over the last couple weeks. consider the hot hand and ride that out.
Jochen Hecht BUF - somebody has to center their talented forwards and right now it's looking like Hecht has the most talent out of the guys available (until Tim Connolly returns). i like Hecht's 2 way responsible play.
Nigel Dawes NYR - getting ice time with various big guns and was among their most consistent forwards while Avery was on the shelf.
Randy Jones PHI - consistent play. gets PP time and contributes with hard nosed play.
Brendan Witt NYI - PIMs galore, solid defensive play and the occasional point.
Kevin Bieksa VAN - yes i realize he's in a full leg cast and will be no use to you until February or so, i just want you to keep him on your radar in a league like this where his game can really help your team.
add Randy Jones for Petteri (hello) Nummelin - i realize that you really like Nummelin right now and that his PP options are through the roof at the moment but i think it's a mirage. once Minny's big guns are all back in the lineup then i expect that the point on the PP will be manned by Burns and probably Rolston. Nummelin will still get PP2 access but i don't see his contributions continuing like they have been of late. if you hate this idea then i'm fine with dropping Bfugly instead or even turfing Peltonen and just running with a bench full of D options.
Trading Options
trade Brendan Morrow to 67 Leafs for Bryan McCabe - i took a gander at your "trading block" and noted that McCabe was on it. you need offensive/PIMy D and McCabe is traditionally one of the best in the game. his only knock in my book is horrid defensive play so the +/- will continue to be brutal this season but that doesn't matter in your system. he can contribute everywhere to your team. you've already started working this angle and i like the direction you're going here. keep that up.
trade Brendan Morrow and Francois Beauchemin to Flaming Leafs for Tomas Kaberle and Mathieu Schneider - these guys are also on the block in your league and they each would provide you with what you need for your team. Flamer is looking for a top forward and Morrow may get you there. Kaberle and Schneider will be key to each of their own team's attack over the course of the season and you might be able to steal them away from their owner if he's asleep at the switch.
trade Brendan Morrow to Kanes Killers for Simon Gagne - i'm hoping that the extra toughness that Morrow offers could land you the goal scoring potential that Gagne would give you. you take a bit of a risk in this offer since Gagne got rocked last week and missed 4 games with concussion symptoms. if you were to get this though then you've got yourself a significant forward to slot into the lineup every week.
trade Brendan Morrow to Dr C for Sheldon Souray - Souray will return this week, perhaps today (Wednesday) and as far as PIMy D who'll pocket goals are concerned there aren't many better than Souray in all of the game. this'd be sweet if you get it.
trade Paul Gaustad and Francois Beauchemin to Skin Flutes for Filip Kuba and Mike Fisher - i took a look at this offer through the trade evaluator on the system and it shows you giving up too much to acquire these guys. let me argue for it anyway though. Beauchemin's contributions will drop like a stone now that Schneider is back in the fold and Niedermayer is talking about returning soon, and a guy like Mike Fisher looks to be solidifying himself on the top line so that Ottawa can balance their attack on a couple lines. i like Gaustad this season and do see that he's on the cusp of contributing but still i think this deal is better for you. Kuba shoots the puck a lot by the way and with Dan Boyle shelved in Tampa then somebody has to be the man on the point for the Lightning.
Conclusions
look at it this way, your best player has only just woken up offensively and you've still managed to stay .500 on the season so far. that's good news. Marian Hossa is an offensive monster who WILL break the 100 pt barrier on the season again. your secondary scoring is enough to keep you afloat, by offsetting your fantasy points and adding some PIMy fantasy points you help yourself and your goaltending is going to keep you afloat all year. what you need to search for is trading for another scoring forward and upgrading your D to add some tough play along with some points, particularly on special teams. defensive play is less important when you're looking for a D upgrade and that's why i've tried to target some crooked nose options for trade that'll help your offensive output (particularly goals) and throw in some PIMs. this'll work.
good luck TJ.
TJ plays in a points league. i hate points leagues. sorry TJ, it's not about you. i just find them to be arbitrary and hard to evaluate unless i want to design a logarhythm that reflects the entire NHL based on the arbitrary numbers that this league sets, and i definitely don't have time for that. however, TJ gives me the impression that he's run some of his own numbers in the past so it doesn't seem all that necessary to run my own. i expect that i'll talk about trends and opportunity more than i will look at hard stats and i'll let TJ use his own hockey sense to craft his way to a winning formula.
ok, the point structure. he plays in a 16 team H2H at CBSSportsline and on a related note, i really like the engine at Sportsline although i find their FA search options cumbersome. TJ's league requires you to pay by the transaction which really makes you stop and question each move before you make it. it's an interesting way for them to generate income but at the same time, guys are naturally going to limit their moves over the course of the season and consequently end up paying less attention to their team. maybe that's just me though. where was i? oh yeah, the points. they play 8F's, 4D's, and a tandem goalie (where whoever is in net for that team on that day earns stats for your fantasy team) with a 6 man bench and no IR option. starting players earn you points like this:
FWD G=1, A=1, PPG=1, SHG=3, GWG=1, SHOG=0.5, HT=5, PSG=10, PIM (min=1, maj=2, misc=3)
DEF G=2, SHG=6, HT=10, PSG=20, remainder same.
GOAL W=2, SO=4, GA=(-0.5), OTW=1, SHOW=0.5, SV=0.1, A=3, PIM same as others.
see why i don't like evaluating points leagues? some quick thoughts that hit me when i saw the structure are that PIMs in particular are harder to evaluate since each different type of PIM is worth a different amount; defensive goals raise the value of D a good chunk, and special teams play is incredibly valuable. what the point in having so many points for a penalty shot goal i'll never be able to determine.
at present TJ is 3rd in his four team division with a 3-3 record. he can set his lineup weekly. let's take a look.
C Rod Brind'amour (B+) CAR - i've read some reports that guys think the game is about to pass him by and the fantasy player should trade him while he still has value. Rod is fine and i'd still expect 80 pts out of him this season.
C Brian Rolston (B+) MIN - the forgotten option in the Wild attack. responsible 2 way play and he's on the ice in every crucial situation.
W Andrew Brunette (B) COL - he's just been moved up to the top line so expect his stats to increase relatedly.
W Marian Hossa (A) ATL - the man is a monster. hold tight and wait for him, it's been pretty tumultuous around this team so far this year.
W Trent Hunter (C) NYI - gotta say, not a fan and wouldn't be starting him.
W Brendan Morrow (B+) DAL - he'll score and should get PIMs which is a bonus. i think he's your best trading chip, by far.
W Chris Neil (B) OTW - i freely admit that i love this guy in all formats, especially ones that reward PIMy play.
W Ryan Smyth (A-) COL - all he does is score. well worth rostering all season and it would take a glorious offer for you to move him out.
D Francois Beauchemin (C) ANA - off the top of the season he led the world in ice time but i said at the time that it wouldn't continue. now that Schneider is back and with Niedermayer talking about returning again then Beau drops a good deal down the depth chart. i'd be shopping him pretty strongly.
D Zdeno Chara (B+) BOS - he'll get bonus PIMs for you and he'll pocket his share of goals. i like him in this format.
D Cory Murphy (B) FLA - special teams stats galore, particularly PPP. he hurt his shoulder last night so you might want to keep an open eye on news for him in the very near future.
D Marek Zidlicky (B-) NAS - phenomenal year for a couple seasons then an off year last year. i think he takes a back seat to Shea Weber for all of his career if he stays in Nashville but that doesn't mean he doesn't have value.
G Philadelphia Flyers (A-) PHI - Martin Biron is arguably a fantasy MVP candidate so far this season and we still haven't heard from a quality goaltender like Antero Niitymaki yet this season.
BN Paul Gaustad (C) BUF - there's upside here and the Sabres need C's who'll contribute. Gaust looks to be in a prime spot to help out if only for the short term.
BN Mark Parrish (C+) MIN - definitely a secondary scoring type of player. if given ice time he'll contribute some but not the sort that you want to start regularly in your league.
BN Ville Peltonen (D) FLA - your weakest forward imo. i doubt i'd have occasion to ever start him if i ever had occasion to roster him.
BN Mikael Samuelsson (B-) DET - i wouldn't be surprised to see him break 50 pts on the season this year and given the opportunities in Hockeytown then i'd even go so far as to say that i EXPECT him to break 50 pts this season.
BN Dustin Byfuglien (D+) CHI - well, he's young and he's contributed plenty with his AHL team. i've seen him play when he visited my local AHL team. he has some opportunity and the path seems more clear for him to keep getting opportunity. he's not much of a viable start at the moment but he might be one day, maybe tomorrow ... ok maybe next month.
BN Petteri Nummelin (D+) MIN- fringe D who's getting PPTOI right now because the offensive options in Minny all have sore groins from too much scoring (or something to that effect). when the better scoring options return then Nummelin's opportunity will disappear.
ok, well i'm not nuts for an awful lot here. the Flyers as your tandem goalie will continue to be a very fine option for you. i like Cory Murphy on your D and see the fact that he's so involved in special teams play as a bonus for your squad. PIMy options are hard to figure but it looks like a guy who'll get his nose right into the middle of things gets some success in this system. if that trend continues then Neil and Chara have some extra value, particularly Neil. i'm going to suggest you shop around for better goal scoring options although i'd be careful offering up Neil to anyone, shop Morrow instead. most of your starting forwards are very much underrated or haven't really shown what they can do yet. they will though. they will. i don't really like your bench at all.
you need to beef up your offensive D and you need at least one more goal scoring forward. you have at your disposal some guys who've had hot starts that can be shopped and you have some power forward options that you can trade.
Waiver Wire Options
Jozef Stumpel FLA - Olli Jokinen is a star in Miami and nobody knows him there. the best option he has on his line is Jozef Stumpel if one assumes that Nathan Horton heads up another scoring line. Stumpy (i wonder if he hates that nickname) can help a fantasy team.
Jiri Hudler DET - Hudler is one of the hottest PP options available over the last couple weeks. consider the hot hand and ride that out.
Jochen Hecht BUF - somebody has to center their talented forwards and right now it's looking like Hecht has the most talent out of the guys available (until Tim Connolly returns). i like Hecht's 2 way responsible play.
Nigel Dawes NYR - getting ice time with various big guns and was among their most consistent forwards while Avery was on the shelf.
Randy Jones PHI - consistent play. gets PP time and contributes with hard nosed play.
Brendan Witt NYI - PIMs galore, solid defensive play and the occasional point.
Kevin Bieksa VAN - yes i realize he's in a full leg cast and will be no use to you until February or so, i just want you to keep him on your radar in a league like this where his game can really help your team.
add Randy Jones for Petteri (hello) Nummelin - i realize that you really like Nummelin right now and that his PP options are through the roof at the moment but i think it's a mirage. once Minny's big guns are all back in the lineup then i expect that the point on the PP will be manned by Burns and probably Rolston. Nummelin will still get PP2 access but i don't see his contributions continuing like they have been of late. if you hate this idea then i'm fine with dropping Bfugly instead or even turfing Peltonen and just running with a bench full of D options.
Trading Options
trade Brendan Morrow to 67 Leafs for Bryan McCabe - i took a gander at your "trading block" and noted that McCabe was on it. you need offensive/PIMy D and McCabe is traditionally one of the best in the game. his only knock in my book is horrid defensive play so the +/- will continue to be brutal this season but that doesn't matter in your system. he can contribute everywhere to your team. you've already started working this angle and i like the direction you're going here. keep that up.
trade Brendan Morrow and Francois Beauchemin to Flaming Leafs for Tomas Kaberle and Mathieu Schneider - these guys are also on the block in your league and they each would provide you with what you need for your team. Flamer is looking for a top forward and Morrow may get you there. Kaberle and Schneider will be key to each of their own team's attack over the course of the season and you might be able to steal them away from their owner if he's asleep at the switch.
trade Brendan Morrow to Kanes Killers for Simon Gagne - i'm hoping that the extra toughness that Morrow offers could land you the goal scoring potential that Gagne would give you. you take a bit of a risk in this offer since Gagne got rocked last week and missed 4 games with concussion symptoms. if you were to get this though then you've got yourself a significant forward to slot into the lineup every week.
trade Brendan Morrow to Dr C for Sheldon Souray - Souray will return this week, perhaps today (Wednesday) and as far as PIMy D who'll pocket goals are concerned there aren't many better than Souray in all of the game. this'd be sweet if you get it.
trade Paul Gaustad and Francois Beauchemin to Skin Flutes for Filip Kuba and Mike Fisher - i took a look at this offer through the trade evaluator on the system and it shows you giving up too much to acquire these guys. let me argue for it anyway though. Beauchemin's contributions will drop like a stone now that Schneider is back in the fold and Niedermayer is talking about returning soon, and a guy like Mike Fisher looks to be solidifying himself on the top line so that Ottawa can balance their attack on a couple lines. i like Gaustad this season and do see that he's on the cusp of contributing but still i think this deal is better for you. Kuba shoots the puck a lot by the way and with Dan Boyle shelved in Tampa then somebody has to be the man on the point for the Lightning.
Conclusions
look at it this way, your best player has only just woken up offensively and you've still managed to stay .500 on the season so far. that's good news. Marian Hossa is an offensive monster who WILL break the 100 pt barrier on the season again. your secondary scoring is enough to keep you afloat, by offsetting your fantasy points and adding some PIMy fantasy points you help yourself and your goaltending is going to keep you afloat all year. what you need to search for is trading for another scoring forward and upgrading your D to add some tough play along with some points, particularly on special teams. defensive play is less important when you're looking for a D upgrade and that's why i've tried to target some crooked nose options for trade that'll help your offensive output (particularly goals) and throw in some PIMs. this'll work.
good luck TJ.
Monday, November 12, 2007
PP possibles and walking wounded
Jiri Hudler is getting some nice ice time of late, scored 2 pts for himself yesterday and was even on the ice with Zetterberg on occasion. some are preaching his virtues but i point out that he's a mid-teen goals guy who just on a hot streak of late. he's a short term add while he's hot and that's on the hope that the streak continues. i'm not a believer beyond the short term though.
Dustin Bfuglien is seeing some PP time too. with all the rumour of the Hawks looking for a PP option on their D then it could just be that they go with this kid for a while longer. he's only been a callup this month and has 2 pts in the 5 games he's been in. it could be that he's one of the guys being shopped in an attempt to land a PP defense guy (i'm looking at you Bryan McCabe but let me also point out that it would take a lot more than Bfugly to a fugly defensive option like McCabe).
Jason Williams is quietly contributing on the PP for the Hawks.
there has been a lot of chatting about Peter Stastny this season, and rightly so, but i think another of the nice PP options that the Avs can throw out there is Wojtek Wolski. he's a 50 pt guy from last year that should stay at about the same level but if the chemistry continues to develop with Stastny then the upside is pretty huge. whatever happened to Marek Svatos as an offensive option? Andrew Brunette has apparently been moved up to the top line. Ian Laperriere is gone for a month with a sprained knee. i sprained a knee a couple winters ago and it was easily a month before i could walk without a limp; i can't imagine playing professional hockey and taking on goons a month after a sprain.
also on the injury front Pavol Kubina blew out a knee too and won't be heard from for more than a month. that's going to mean that the Leafs can't really move a D without getting a viable option back. Marian Gaborik still isn't ready to go and that will inflate the value of lesser lights like Mikko Koivu and Pierre Marc Bouchard as they get more opportunity.
Dustin Bfuglien is seeing some PP time too. with all the rumour of the Hawks looking for a PP option on their D then it could just be that they go with this kid for a while longer. he's only been a callup this month and has 2 pts in the 5 games he's been in. it could be that he's one of the guys being shopped in an attempt to land a PP defense guy (i'm looking at you Bryan McCabe but let me also point out that it would take a lot more than Bfugly to a fugly defensive option like McCabe).
Jason Williams is quietly contributing on the PP for the Hawks.
there has been a lot of chatting about Peter Stastny this season, and rightly so, but i think another of the nice PP options that the Avs can throw out there is Wojtek Wolski. he's a 50 pt guy from last year that should stay at about the same level but if the chemistry continues to develop with Stastny then the upside is pretty huge. whatever happened to Marek Svatos as an offensive option? Andrew Brunette has apparently been moved up to the top line. Ian Laperriere is gone for a month with a sprained knee. i sprained a knee a couple winters ago and it was easily a month before i could walk without a limp; i can't imagine playing professional hockey and taking on goons a month after a sprain.
also on the injury front Pavol Kubina blew out a knee too and won't be heard from for more than a month. that's going to mean that the Leafs can't really move a D without getting a viable option back. Marian Gaborik still isn't ready to go and that will inflate the value of lesser lights like Mikko Koivu and Pierre Marc Bouchard as they get more opportunity.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Peace Sunday and Remembrance Day
rarely does Remembrance Day fall on a Sunday so we dealt with Peace Sunday at church while stopping to remember too. the below is taken from a poem/teaching by Sri Chinmoy and the very bottom is an old Celtic blessing that was given as we departed.
We invent war. We discover peace.
We invent war from without.
We discover peace from within.
The smile of war is the flood of human blood.
The smile of peace is the love, below and above.
Peace is the whole truth that wishes to enrapture humanity.
War is the whole falsehood that wants to capture humanity.
Peace begins in the soul and ends in the heart.
War begins in the mind and ends in the body.
War forgets peace. Peace forgives war.
War is the death of the life human. Peace is the birth of the Life Divine.
War is clear futility in dire spear-stupidity.
Peace is flowing infinity in glowing eternity.
We seek war when we think that the world is not ours.
We invite war when we feel that we can conquer the world.
We proclaim war when we dream
that the world has already surrendered to us.
We seek peace because our earthly existence desperately needs it.
We welcome peace because we feel
that in peace alone is our life of achievement and fulfillment.
We spread peace because Christ has transcended death.
The darkness in us wars against peace in the outer world,
in the world of conflicting ideas.
The Christ in us wars against ignorance in the inner world,
in the world of mounting ideals.
The darkness in us wants war for the sake of war,
war to devour the sleeping world.
The Christ in us wants peace for the sake of peace,
peace to feed the hungry world.
Peace of the running waves to you,
Deep peace of the flowing air to you,
Deep peace of the quiet earth to you,
Deep peace of the shining stars to you,
Deep peace of the shades of night to you,
Moon and stars always giving light to you,
Deep peace of Christ, the Son of Peace, to you.
Amen.
We invent war. We discover peace.
We invent war from without.
We discover peace from within.
The smile of war is the flood of human blood.
The smile of peace is the love, below and above.
Peace is the whole truth that wishes to enrapture humanity.
War is the whole falsehood that wants to capture humanity.
Peace begins in the soul and ends in the heart.
War begins in the mind and ends in the body.
War forgets peace. Peace forgives war.
War is the death of the life human. Peace is the birth of the Life Divine.
War is clear futility in dire spear-stupidity.
Peace is flowing infinity in glowing eternity.
We seek war when we think that the world is not ours.
We invite war when we feel that we can conquer the world.
We proclaim war when we dream
that the world has already surrendered to us.
We seek peace because our earthly existence desperately needs it.
We welcome peace because we feel
that in peace alone is our life of achievement and fulfillment.
We spread peace because Christ has transcended death.
The darkness in us wars against peace in the outer world,
in the world of conflicting ideas.
The Christ in us wars against ignorance in the inner world,
in the world of mounting ideals.
The darkness in us wants war for the sake of war,
war to devour the sleeping world.
The Christ in us wants peace for the sake of peace,
peace to feed the hungry world.
Peace of the running waves to you,
Deep peace of the flowing air to you,
Deep peace of the quiet earth to you,
Deep peace of the shining stars to you,
Deep peace of the shades of night to you,
Moon and stars always giving light to you,
Deep peace of Christ, the Son of Peace, to you.
Amen.
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